Coauthored by Shanmukh, Saswati Sarkar, and Dikgaj
Indian Parliament has just passed a Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) which is intended to provide citizenship to the religious minorities from Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh who have fled religious persecution there and have arrived in India by 31 December, 2014. The persecution of religious minorities in these three countries have been well-documented [76], including by academics from Dhaka University [77] [31]. We present some human stories as to why religious minorities flee these countries, as as reported in the media recently.
- Shyamal Sen used to teach in a High School in Rangpur, Bangladesh. His student Rashid demanded a relationship with his daughter. His daughter was not receptive. Then bricks were being hurled at their home. She stopped going to College. The threats increased. When she resumed, Rashid would stop her rickshaw, get up and sit by her. The family fled to India around 2009 [61]
- Biresh Roy is from an aristocratic family of Khulna. He married twelve years back in a Khulna village. The sycophants of UP chairman used to molest his beautiful wife. In 2017 they fled to India. They now live in Barasat in West Bengal. He is educating his son, driving a Toto, and has a home with 2 rooms in a tiny plot of land. He can not think of returning to Bangladesh [61].
- Rabi Gain is from Rajshahi. He owned 300 bighas in Bangladesh. Muslims occupied his land. First his brother, next he himself lost everything in suing the squatters for 22 years. He could not educate his sons. He sold his land for a mere Rs. 5 lakhs, mortgaged his home for a 3 lakh loan from a bank in Bangladesh. And he fled to India. He says that no one would buy his home in Bangladesh. Hindu property worth lakhs and lakhs have been grabbed in Bangladesh. He says he would die, but not return to Bangladesh. If need be, he would fall on Modi’s feet in Delhi to continue his stay [61].
There was therefore a crying need for regularizing these individuals, of according them human dignity, which CAA may just accomplish.
Yet, various quarters have been protesting against the CAA. One of the stated grounds for the protests is that the act would ethnically cleanse the North East by encouraging the migration of the Hindu Bengalis, who comprise a religious minority in Bangladesh. This has been voiced by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi [77] and various protesters. Since the Act would not legalize any one who arrived after 31 December, 2014, the veracity of this claim may be assessed by examining the number of Hindu Bengalis who are already present in the North East. Our examination shows the vacuity of this claim through a demographic analysis.
First note that the Act does not apply to the regions of the North East that are covered by Inner Line Permit and sixth schedule. That leaves only a few districts of Assam, Tripura and the Shillong town of Meghalaya. These are also the places in which the largest intended beneficiary community, the Hindu Bengalis live, primarily, though a considerable number of Hindu Bengalis live in the districts of Assam and Tripura covered by the sixth schedule. It is worth mentioning that Hindu Bengalis are not more than 3% of the total population in the other states, i.e., Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Mizoram, and Manipur.
Since Tripura and Shillong are very small, we focus on the state of Assam and the cutoff date of 24 March 1971 to determine the number of migrants from across the border, Bangladesh. This cutoff date had been agreed upon in the Assam accord signed in 1985 by then Prime Minister of India, Rajiv Gandhi. In our earlier work we had shown that 6.04 lakh is the number of Hindus arrived from Bangladesh after that date until 1991 [81]. Along with the descendants, it would be roughly 8 lakhs, but the number that would require citizenship would be much smaller, since many of the refugees have married with the locals. The number of Hindu Bengali refugees arriving in Assam after 1991 has been trivially small and may be ignored. Further, the Bengali Hindu proportion in Assam has remained virtually static constituting between 10% and 12% of the population since 1951. In this piece, using the census we calculate the number of Muslim migrants who arrived in Assam from Bangladesh after the cutoff date. The number is 25.5 lakhs, which is three times more than the number of Hindu refugees who arrived in Assam. The Hindu refugees are largely Hindu Bengalis, and the Muslim migrants would be Bengali speaking Muslims. Now, considering that Hindu Bengalis and Bengali speaking Muslims comprise 10.7%, 17.9% of the overall populace of Assam, it becomes clear that it is the Muslim migrants from Bangladesh, who are ethnically cleansing Assam. Since the Muslims are not subjected to any religious persecution in Bangladesh, these are economic migrants. We also estimate the number of illegal Muslim immigrants in West Bengal as 42.65 lakhs. Using these, and the evolution of the proportion of the populace residing in India who speak various languages, we expose the vacuity of the propaganda that there are no illegal Muslim migrants in Assam. Note that various international bodies and human rights organizations have insinuated that the objective of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) published on 31 August, 2019 is to disenfranchise Muslims [79]. But, we show that the NRC has legalized 75% of the illegal Muslim migrants. We also show that the political reactions from various bodies, including Muslim ones, is consistent with the inference of large scale legalization of illegal Muslim immigrants. We also debunk some specious claims as to the exclusion of a large number of illegal Muslim immigrants through omission. We note that after the publication of the NRC final list there was hardly any protest in Assam or elsewhere. This tells us that preserving the ethnic balance of Assam, say from the cutoff date of 24 March, 1971, is not the real motivation for the anti-CAA protests (Section A).
Another necessity for the CAA lies in the recently published NRC. Using observations by media, activists, politicians of Assam, data released in Assam assembly and Census, in a previous article we showed that Hindu Bengalis have been disproportionately excluded. Many of those excluded from NRC had arrived in India before the cut-off date for identifying foreigners, namely 24 March, 1971 [79]. They had refugee certificates provided by the government authorities when they arrived, which were not accepted by the NRC coordinator. Many of those excluded had land documents in India predating 1971, which were discounted too. In several cases, some members of a family were included, while the rest were excluded. Most of those excluded were poor and nearly illiterate, are from poor and rural regions, and had to rely on others to even complete the appeal forms. The excluded are by and large the descendants of the refugees of partition, their parents had migrated to the only land in which they believed they could live without having to convert to Islam, and live as free men and women, with human dignity. Creating a new life for themselves had not been easy the first time and was realized only through an intense struggle for existence. But in one generation, the same families are facing statelessness yet again, due to the NRC. It is Sita’s Agnipariksha played all over. Several of those excluded, committed suicide from a sense of humiliation and helplessness associated with the foreigner tag, or because they did not have the financial resources or physical stamina to contest the exclusion, or because of the terror of being confined to a detention camp. The exclusions also include a gender-based discrimination, and a large number of women who had moved to Assam from other Indian states after marriage have been excluded, as documents from other Indian states were not accepted. The exclusions in this category span all socio-economic classes [79]. In addition, tagged as foreigners, many Hindu Bengalis of Assam are being held in detention camps across Assam, under utterly inhuman conditions [78]. Those excluded from NRC now face the prospect of going through tribunals and subsequently courts, which will de-facto levy hefty financial penalties on them. The time the victims need to devote to travel to the courts (which may be far off from where they live) and attend the sessions would put them at a competitive disadvantage in the current economy especially those who are daily wage labour and agrarian labour. If those excluded from the NRC eventually lose at the end of the lengthy legal process, they will lose their jobs and other governmental benefits, to start with, and will face detention and deportation subsequently [78]. Finally, many who have been included in NRC continue to receive “doubtful voter” notices, which is the first step for commitment to detention centers. In effect, Hindu Bengalis are treated as unwanted populace, who the administration would rather have sent elsewhere, either outside Assam or to outside India [79]. By providing citizenship to the Hindus who arrived from Bangladesh, CAA may stop this persecution. facilitate speedy inclusion of these people, and spare them a time-consuming and expensive legal recourse.
We next assess the effects – both demographic and political – of exclusion of such large numbers of Hindus, which the NRC in absence of CAA ensures, and legalization of such large number of illegal Muslim migrants. As district-wise numbers are not available from the final publication, we utilise the numbers from the final draft list published in 2018. The district-wise Census and exclusion statistics point unambiguously to Islamization of Assam in near future. By 2021 several districts of Assam will become Hindu minority or borderline Hindu minority due to the NRC exclusions and legalizations, and the local Muslim party, AUDF, will become well-poised to capture power, with the distinct possibility of their leader Badruddin Ajmal the next chief minister of Assam. Also, demands for creation of Bengali-Muslim majority states through division of Assam are likely to emerge. Strategically, the connection between the North East and the remainder of India will now be dominated by Muslim majority regions. By reversing the Hindu exclusion, the CAA might delay the process and provide a lifeline to Assam (Section B).
We next examine the effects of the NRC, without the CAA, on the linguistic demographics. The growth rate of the Hindi and Urdu speaking populace is substantially higher than that of the rest of the populace, namely the Bengali speakers and the South Indians. Throughout India the Muslims have higher growth rates than Hindus. But, the Muslims of Kerala, Tamizh Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Bengal have lower TFR than the Hindus of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan. NRC in Assam excluded primarily the Hindus who do not speak the dominant language in the state (namely Assamese) or in India (Hindi). If this bias percolates to the pan-India NRC, then the demographics would skew towards the Hindi and Urdu speakers much more in the near future, through exclusion of Hindus among the speakers of non-Hindi languages. Thus a CAA-like protection may be required for the rest of the Hindus too. The linguistic growth rates presented here also help debunk some specious arguments used to claim that there is no illegal immigration of Muslims from Bangladesh into India (Section C).
Finally, we document how the distress caused by NRC has adversely impacted the economy in Assam and adjoining regions in West Bengal. The news of the mass exclusion of Hindu Bengalis in NRC in Assam has precipitated an atmosphere of impending doom and gloom in West Bengal. Many poor people in West Bengal either do not have documents predating 1971, or have lost their documents in natural calamities. They are terrified of losing their citizenship status should an NRC be conducted. Many are queuing up in local administrative offices to collect or update their birth certificated, ration cards, names in voter lists, property documents etc. fearing that NRC would be shortly declared in West Bengal. And then there are the refugees who had fled religious persecution in Bangladesh after 1971. They are terrified that once they are declared illegals, the government would forfeit their land and bank balance and they would be thrown out. The terror and mass hysteria over NRC is so intense in West Bengal that some who are discovering that they have lost some of their documents are dying out of fear or committing suicide (Section D). This fear explains why BJP-RSS was routed in 3 assembly seats in a bypoll in November, 2019. All 3 seats were Hindu majority. BJP-RSS had led its nearest rival, the TMC by 40-60 K votes in 2 of these seats in Lok sabha 2019 polls held less than 6 months back. The winner TMC had never won in 2 of these seats earlier, and 1 of these seats used to be held by the West Bengal state President of BJP-RSS, Dilip Ghosh. Dilip Ghosh has attributed these losses to a campaign of misinformation on the NRC by TMC [80]. BJP MLA candidate from Kaliaganj, Kamal Chandra Sarkar, conceded that BJP’s vow to introduce NRC in Bengal had “backfired”. He said “Trinamul went on campaigning on NRC and highlighted the consequences. On the other hand, our leaders went on asserting that our party is determined to introduce it in Bengal, which is why it backfired. As a result, a section of voters did not support us this time like they had in the parliamentary polls” [2]. If successfully implemented, the CAA would reverse this atmosphere, among the Hindu populace of Bengal and Assam, by providing a safety net and render them more receptive towards a pan-India NRC if and when that is declared. Simultaneously, as suggested in the previous paragraph, the Government should envision some other safety nets for Indics of the rest of India many of whom would be citizens but just may not have the adequate documents to prove that they are so. The Indics in the rest of India should be spared the distress the Indics of Assam and West Bengal just went through.
Jharkhand Election Scene
Jharkhand constitutes an interesting example to examine the effects of the CAA. In Jharkhand, Bengali speakers constitute ~10% of the total population, with 8-9% of them being Hindu Bengalis. In Jharkhand, the BJP has suffered a defeat, winning only 25 of the 81 seats in the Assembly. Many of the psephologists and commentators have ascribed the defeat to the CAA. However, when the poll results are analysed phasewise, it becomes very interesting. The CAA was passed in the Rajya Sabha on the 11th of December, and assented to by the president on the 12th of December, by which the first three phases were over. The BJP won only 14 of the 50 seats in the first three phases, winning 31.26% of the votes [31.57% of the votes, if an independent supported by BJP in Hussainabad is included], while in the latter two phases it won 11 of the 31 seats, with 36.53% of the votes. In other words, the BJP won 28% of the seats in the first three phases, and 35.5% of the seats in the fourth and fifth phases, when the effect of the CAA was felt.
In particular, the BJP performed extremely well in the fourth phase, when it swept 8 of the 15 seats in the fourth phase. In fact, the BJP swept the bulk of the Bengali heavy seats, winning 6 of the 8 seats in the fourth phase. In the fifth phase, there were only two Bengali heavy seats, and the BJP won 1 of the two. The seat it lost [Nala] was lost narrowly, by a margin of around 4,000 votes. This is in total contrast to the BJP’s performance in the Bengali heavy seats of the second and third phases where it lost all the 6 seats of East Singhbhum [which has a very large Bengali population]. In short, in the first three phases, when the CAA was not passed, the rout of the BJP was total in the Bengali heavy seats. In contrast, the BJP swept the Bengali heavy seats of the fourth and fifth phases, when the CAA had been passed.
The table above, which contrasts the performance of the BJP in the second phase against the performance in the fourth phase constitutes an interesting study. In all these seats highlighted above, the Bengali population constitutes at least 20% of the electorate. In the second phase, the BJP got 32.84% of the seats, losing all the seats, including its strongholds like those in Jamshedpur and Jugsalai, which the BJP [or its allies] have long held. Indeed, even the chief minister, Raghubar Das, lost his own Jamshedpur East seat. In contrast, in the fourth phase, when the effect of the CAA had been felt, the BJP won 40.17%, a near 7.5% rise from the previous time. In fact, in this phase, the BJP managed to hold on to its tally in the Bengali heavy region, winning seats like Nirsa which it had never won before.
There are two more further interesting facts to note here. In the first three phases, the voting percentage was lower for the BJP, but rose sharply in the last two phases, indicating that not only did the Bengalis vote wholeheartedly for the CAA, but it had significant support from the other groups [principally the Hindi speaking people] too. Secondly, the final phase was tribal and Muslim heavy, and here the JMM and the Congress enjoyed a massive advantage. In fact, the BJP had lost this region even in the Lok Sabha polls, when it won nearly everywhere else in the state. This indicates that the CAA has significant traction, not only among the Bengali speaking population, but also among others, who do not benefit significantly from it. Finally, despite the poor showing in the last phase, when the BJP won only 3 of the 16 seats in the tribal+Muslim belt [where the effect of the CAA would be minimal, or even negative among the Muslims], the BJP’s performance went up in the last two phases.
Section A: How Illegal Muslim immigrants from Bangladesh have been legalized
In Sections A.1 and A.2 we estimate the number of illegal Muslim immigrants in Assam and West Bengal as of now. The numbers are respectively 25.5 and 42.65 lakhs. In Section A.3 we expose the vacuity of the propaganda that there are no illegal Muslim migrants in Assam.
In Section A.4 we argue that at least 75% of the illegal Muslim immigrants in Assam have been legalized, using our Census based estimate in Section A.1 and the NRC exclusion demographics. We show that the political reactions from various bodies, including Muslim ones, is consistent with this phenomenon. We also debunk some specious claims as to the exclusion of a large number of illegal Muslim immigrants through omission.
Section A.1: Illegal Muslim population in Assam
BJP MLA from Hojai of Assam, Shiladitya Deb, estimates that 1.5 crore illegal Muslims have infiltrated from Bangladesh into Assam since 1951 [7]. Assam BJP President Ranajit Das has said that “In 1991, former Assam chief minister Hiteshwar Saikia had said there are 30 lakh illegal Bangladeshis in Assam. Then, Congress home Minister Sriprakash Jaiswal told the Rajya Sabha that 50 lakh illegal Bangladeshis are there in Assam. Even Indrajit Gupta in the H D Deve Gowda government had talked of around 42 lakh illegal foreigners.’’ [17]. On 15 September, BJP-RSS MLA from Silchar said that there were 1 crore illegal Bengali Muslims in Assam and 95% of them have been included in the NRC [58]. We obtain a more conservative estimate following Census. In the table below, we have shown the estimate of the number of illegals that exist in Assam since the cut off year of 1971, using the Bangladeshi rate of growth.
The columns marked with the year show the actual population of Muslims in the districts in the year in thousands, the columns marked with the est. tag show the estimated population of Muslims in thousands that should have been there in the district assuming that the Muslims grew at the same rate as they did in Bangladesh in the decades. There was no census in Assam in 1981, and so, we have used the 1971-1991 growth rates for Bangladesh for the 1991 Est. column. The column marked “Illegals’’ show the excess of the actual number in the corresponding year above the estimated one, that is, the number that would have been if the Muslims grew as per the growth rate in Bangladesh. At the end of this column, we have added up the total number of illegals for the entire state for the decades. Consequently, there were 7.6 lakh illegal Bangladeshi infiltrators in the 1971-1991 decades, 5.48 lakhs in Assam in the 1991-2001 decade, and 8.13 lakhs in the 2001-11 decades.
Assuming that the illegals have grown at the same rates in India as the Muslims grew in Bangladesh, we get the total number of illegals to be 7.6 lakh multiplied by the Bangladeshi growth rate between 1991-2011, added to 5.48 lakh multiplied by the Bangladeshi growth rate between 2001 and 2011, added to 8.13 lakhs, which yields a total of 25.53 lakh illegals in Assam. Indeed, this is likely to have been an underestimate as the number of illegals in the Barak valley in the 1971-1991 was considerably higher, and there was considerable emigration from the Barak valley during the Asom andolan, as jobs became scarce in Assam for the Bengali speaking population. On the other hand, the total number of illegal immigrants especially in the 2001-11 era may be a slight overestimate as the Muslim population of Assam is heavily rural and the Bangladeshi growth rates may be underestimating the actual numbers. However, these are impossible to quantify, so we have employed these numbers as base estimates
Section A.2: Illegal Muslim Population in Bengal
Similarly, we shall now examine the number of illegal Muslims in Bengal. Bengal has also been inundated with illegal Muslim immigrants from neighbouring Bangladesh. The Bengali Muslim numbers have been approximated below.
The columns marked with the year show the actual population of Muslims in the districts in the year in thousands, the columns marked with the est. tag show the estimated population of Muslims in thousands that should have been there in the district assuming that the Muslims grew at the same rate as they did in Bangladesh in the decades. The column marked “Illegals’’ show the excess of the actual number in the corresponding year above the estimated one, that is, the number that would have been if the Muslims grew as per the growth rate in Bangladesh. At the end of this column, we have added up the total number of illegals for the entire state for the decades. Consequently, there were 4.6 lakh illegal Bangladeshi infiltrators in the 1971-1981 decade, 13.9 lakhs in 1981-1991 decade, 3.51 lakhs in 1991-2001 decade, and 10.04 lakhs in the 2001-11 decades. The highest influx happened in the period between 1981 and 1991, where nearly 14 lakh illegal immigrants arrived from Bangladesh.
Again, assuming that the growth rate of Muslims in Bengal was similar to that in Bangladesh from 1971 onwards, we get a total of 42.65 lakh illegal Muslims in West Bengal. It is possible that there is a slight overestimate of the number of illegal immigrants in the 2001-11 period due to the fact that the rural population of Muslims may have had a higher growth.
It is interesting that the bulk of the protests against the CAA in West Bengal are coming from the two Twenty Four Paraganas districts [83] and Howrah district [82], which house a very large number of illegals. Our computations suggest that this region has a total of ~15 lakh illegal immigrants from 1971.
Also, note that the TFR of Hindu Bengalis (1.5) is much lower than that of the Hindi and Urdu speakers in West Bengal, whose TFRs would be similar to: 1) TFR of Hindus of UP (2.6), Madhya Pradesh (2.6), Rajasthan (2.8), and Bihar (2.9) , and 2) Muslims of UP (2.9) and Bihar (3.3) . But still, and despite large scale influx of Hindi-Urdu speakers into Bengal from UP and Bihar, the percentage of people speaking Bangla is rising from census to census, albeit slightly. The percentage of Hindi and Urdu speakers in West Bengal fell from 7.16% to 6.96% and from 2.02% to 1.83% in the 2001-11 decade. Indeed, Bengal is one of the very few states where the percentage of Hindi speakers fell. This is purely due to the immigration of the Muslims from Bangladesh.
Section A.3: No Illegal Immigration of Muslims in Assam?
A suggestion has been made in certain quarters that the rise of the Muslim population of Assam is due to internal migration and/or high birth rates. We shall examine this suggestion in the light of the Muslim population of Assam. The Muslim population of Assam comes from three sources – Bengali [56 lakhs], Assamese [47 lakhs] and Hindi speaking[3 lakhs], with the rest coming from other assorted communities. Given that the bulk of the Muslims 1.03 crore out of 1.07 crore are Assamese are either Assamese or Bengali, they cannot have come from anywhere outside Assam, Bengal or Bangladesh [there are simply not many outside these states]. Bengal itself is showing a massive growth in Muslim numbers, roughly 1.5 times greater than the growth rates of Bangladesh, and the total Muslim population of Bengal is in excess of 42.65 lakhs for the period between 1971 and 2011, it is reasonable to assume that excess population of Assam did not come from Bengal. For the Muslim population of Assam to grow roughly 30% faster than the growth of the population of Bangladesh, it would need a total fertility rate (TFR) that was 30% higher. In the 1971-1991, the average Muslim TFR in Bangladesh was 5.95. To get the growth rates that Assam showed in the period, Muslims of Assam would need a TFR of nearly 8, which is ridiculously high. To put things in comparison, the peak TFR of India was in the early 1960s, at 5.91. Similarly, immigration from Bengal is impossible, as nearly every district is showing Muslim growth rates to be extremely high, demanding roughly similar growth rates as the ones in Assam. If immigration occurred from Bengal, then the TFR of Muslim women in Bengal would have to be greater than 8. This is ignoring the high infant mortality rates that both Assam and West Bengal showed in the 1970s and 1980s, especially among the poorer Muslims. Consequently, the only region from which the Muslims could have come is Bangladesh.
Section A.4: Large scale legalization of illegal Muslim immigrants in Assam
Summarily, NRC final list has identified 5-6 lakh Muslims as illegals, while our Census based conservative estimate shows that there are more than 25 lakh illegal Muslims in Assam. Thus, the NRC final list has legalized 75% of the illegal Muslim immigrants. The percentage of illegal Muslims who have been legalized would be much higher if we go by the number of illegal Muslims estimated by politicians like Deb, Saikia, Jaiswal, Gupta, etc.
On August 1, 2019, the Assam government had presented before the state Assembly district-wise data on exclusion from the draft NRC of 2018, which showed that in districts bordering Bangladesh, which have higher proportion of Muslims, the exclusion percentage was lower than in other districts [17]. For example, in Muslim majority Dhubri, with 79.67% being Muslims, only 7.49% were excluded from the draft NRC, and only 5% from the final NRC; this 5% is primarily Hindu Bengali and Hindi-speaking women who have the requisite documents [35]. After publication of the final list, Himanta Biswa Sharma, said that the rejection rate was least in Dakshin Shalomara and Dhubri districts adjoining Bangladesh [54]. These tally with with our Census based analysis.
The reactions of various politicians also attest to the legalization of a large fraction of illegal Muslim immigrants. For example, BJP-RSS MLA from Hojai, Shiladitya Dev, has said that the names of the Bangladeshi Muslim infiltrators have been enlisted in NRC with the help of fake documents [15]. As per a report that reached Dev, all residents of a Muslim village in Bongaigaon, which came up after 1972, have been included, though the Hindus of a neighboring village who had arrived in 1962 have been excluded [32].
The reactions of politicians from various Muslim parties and organizations also attest to the legalization of a large fraction of illegal Muslim immigrants. Right after the publication of the final NRC list, on 31 August, 2019 itself, a party that primarily protects the interest of the Muslims in Assam, AIDUF led by Badruddin Ajmal, thanked the Supreme Court for taking the initiative to ascertain genuine citizens [19]. On 1 September, he has called upon everyone to accept the NRC final list [8]. On 1 September, Hailakandi Jamiat has supported the NRC list too, in a joint statement issued by its President, General Secretary and Spokesman [8]. Local Bengali newspaper Dainik Jugasankha reports that the Muslims have been celebrating and distributing sweets after the publixcation of the final list [35]. Less than a fortnight after the publication of the NRC final list, the General Council of the Jamiat Ulema-i-Hind, one of the leading organisations of Islamic scholars in India, supported the NRC and the government’s stand on identifying foreigners in the country [34]. In fact a month or so before the publication of the final NRC, Muslim organizations have started supporting the NRC. For example, towards the end of July 2019, Maharashtra Muslim Manch (MMM), an umbrella organisation of 40 NGOs working for the Muslims, had come forward in the support of the NRC exercise being conducted in Assam [33]. In October, 2019, Ashraful Islam, the working president of the students’ wing of the Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti, a peasant rights organisation in Assam, which has been vehemently opposing the BJP, noted that Muslims in Jania of Assam are opting for the BJP. He explained that Muslims have disapproved the statements of the Congress leaders denouncing the NRC since most of them have been included in it: “Former chief minister Tarun Gogoi has been claiming that NRC is a waste paper. People have invested so much time, faced so much harassment already before the list was published. Now that their names are on it they don’t like anyone who is speaking against it” [14]. Close to four lakh Muslims in Assam have obtained primary membership of the BJP in the past three months through “missed calls’’ (primary membership can be obtained in BJP by calling a phone number which does not answer the call); this trend could rank among the highest across all states in the country. Overall since 2015, around 13 per cent of the total 47 lakh such calls the party has received from residents of the state so far have been placed by Muslims. Muslims from lower Assam, which borders Bangladesh, have placed greater number of those calls; most of these Muslims would be Bengali speaking Muslims. That such popularity of BJP-RSS among Muslims owes to their large scale regularization through NRC may be seen from the following statement of the former chairman of Joint State Haj Committee of Northeast, Hamim Kutub Javed Ahmed: “BJP’s popularity is noticed primarily among sections of Bengal-origin Muslims in Barpeta, Dhubri, Goalpara and Nagaon. BJP is in power at the Centre and the state, and they think that joining the party will give them a shield of protection. They already have their names enrolled in the NRC and they are no longer afraid of being victimised.” [18]. In October, 2019, A helper with Guwahati Police’s bomb disposal squad and general secretary of BJP’s minority wing of Jania, Maidul Islam said “The vast majority of people here have already made it to the NRC, so they are happy. Among those who have not, there are ones who are supporting us. Since they think this way they will not face harassment”. He was confident that the BJP will do remarkably well in the bypolls in the immediate aftermath of the publication of the NRC final list, in contrast with its performance in the past. He said that after May 2019, 37,000 new members have joined BJP in Jania, in addition to the 12,000 it already had in the constituency. In October 2019, Noorul Islam, who is an English teacher in a government senior secondary school in Jania, and also a D Voter and has been excluded from the NRC final list, accepted that the BJP would still get votes in Jania: “We are thick-skinned like a rhinoceros. We don’t mind being abused as long as there is some benefit” [14]. Shiladitya Dev suggested that illegal Muslim infiltrators from Bangladesh “celebrated (the NRC final list) by distributing sweets’’ [20].
Finally, we recently came across a claim in a magazine that serves as an unofficial mouthpiece of the BJP-RSS that a large fraction of illegal Muslim immigrants have been disenfranchised through omission [64]. The specific claim is that many such have not applied and therefore have not been included in the NRC, and they do not count among the exclusion statistics provided by NRC official sources as they did not apply in the first place. The claim is specious at best, and has been supported by a series of “statistics’’, many of which are either hypothetical, or even worse, outright false. The article even provides a false figure for the population of Assam, based on unnamed `experts’ and then, posits a claim that goes against every available evidence. We quote the central claim verbatim below, and debunk it subsequently:
“Even if the decadal growth rate in Assam’s population from 1981 to 2011 is assumed to be a very conservative 25 per cent — experts say it would be around 30 per cent —then Assam’s population in 2011 would have been around 3.52 crore and in 2015 (when the process of NRC updation started), the projected population would have been 3.87 crore. But the census projections put Assam’s population in 2015 at 3.39 crore. Thus, the difference in Assam’s actual population and projected census population would have been 48 lakh. But that is not all. In 2015, as many as 3.30 crore people applied for inclusion of their names in the NRC. That means, 57 lakh people (3.87 crore minus 3.30 crore) did not apply for inclusion in the NRC.’’
There are several flaws in this contention. First, there was no census in Assam in 1981. Then, what is the base population in 1981 and how did the author arrive at it? Further, the article does not name the `experts’ who computed the population of Assam to be 3.52 crores in 2011, nor how the 3.87 crore figure was arrived at. The article posits that the growth rate was at least 25% , more likely 30% during 1981-2011. It is pertinent to note that the fertility rates everywhere have come down and Assam is no exception. Assam, Bengal and Bangladesh have all experienced lower fertility rates since 1991. Consequently, the population rise in Assam has also come down, which tally with the available Census and electoral rolls during this period . Assuming that the growth rate from 2011 is the same as in the 2001-11 decade, using the population of Assam reported in Census in 2011 (3.12 crores) as the base case, the overall population of Assam in 2015 would be 3.32 crores. The number which applied for inclusion in NRC was 3.30 crores. The slight discrepancy should be seen in the light of the falling growth rates in Assam.
The article [64] also claims that over time the census has been repeatedly fudged, citing a mismatch between the census and electoral roll numbers. The claims do not stand scrutiny as, in actuality, the census and electoral rolls match quite well. We first reproduce the claim verbatim:
“But the periodic revision of electoral rolls tells a completely different story and here, the increase in the number of Muslims who get into the electoral rolls is much higher than the growth in their population as per the census figures.
How is that possible? “It is obvious that the census is fudged and manipulated to hide the true picture of the growth in Muslim population in Assam,” says Bhuyan.
Bhuyan’s allegations are borne out by statistical analysis. From 1981 to 2011, for instance, there is no correlation between the growth in Assam’s population as revealed in the census and the increase in the number of voters in the electoral rolls.
The overall average growth rate in Assam’s population during these three decades is 20.07 per cent, which is even below the national average of 21.03 per cent during the same period.
However, the increase in the number of voters (as per periodic revision of electoral rolls during this same period) is 35 per cent.’’
Throughout the 1980s, there were no proper polls held in Assam, except for the one in 1985, when the AGP swept the polls, in the aftermath of the Assam Andolan. As mentioned before, there was no census in Assam in 1981, nor were there polls held in most constituencies in 1980, 1984, or 1989. The election held in 1983 was a miserable failure, with less than 10% of the electorate exercising their franchise in most of the Hindu constituencies. Consequently, how people are estimating the size of the electoral rolls in the entire period 1981-2011 is anyone’s guess. Let us look at the decadal growths in the available electoral rolls, by observing the total numbers of electors [68].
As one may note in the above, except in the 1996-2006 period, all the decadal updates are in <30%, and not the 35% claimed in [64]. Let us look at the census growth in 1991-2011 period [69].
Given that only 18 years and above can vote, the people who entered the population in 1991-2001 would have reached majority in 2009-2019. The decadal growth of 1991-2001, which is 18.75% growth rate is actually slightly HIGHER, not lower than the rise of the electorate, which is 17.38% for the 2009-2019 decade. So, the claim that the electorate is rising faster is wholly false.
As a point of exercise, we also examined the number of electors in 2011, using the age information. The total number of people aged 19 and above was 1.79 crores. The total electorate in 2011 was 1.81 crores. The total number of people in the 14-18 age group in 2011 was 30.7 lakhs. Assuming a uniform distribution, we obtain another 6 lakh people, which brings the total number of people aged 18 and more to 1.85 crore, which is perfectly balanced with the electorate of 1.81 crores.
Finally, [64] gets some basic statistics wrong. Muslims were 24.68% in 1951 [65]. They have risen to 34.2% in 2011 [66], while [64] claims: “Thanks to unchecked infiltration of Muslims from Bangladesh, the percentage of Muslims has risen from 21 per cent in 1951 to nearly 35 per cent now.’’
Section B: The impact of the NRC exclusions on the politico-religious demography of Assam without the CAA
In this section, we shall estimate the demographic and political effect of the NRC on Assam in absence of the CAA. First, recall that out of the 19 lakhs excluded from the NRC, there are 13-14 lakh Hindus and 5-6 lakh Muslims. The excluded Hindus roughly comprise of 11 lakh Hindu Bengalis, 1 lakh Nepalis, 1 lakh tribals, 15,000 Bhojpuris, and the rest being assorted from other communities. The percentage exclusion from different communities are as follows:
Next, with the Hindu Bengalis being finished for good in Assam, with nearly 33% excluded, there is a serious danger of a significant chunk of Bengalis moving out of Assam for good. We examine the consequences of such flight on Assam. Towards that end, we examine the exclusions per district. The NRC final draft list, published in 2018, gave the following statistics for the inclusion percentages for the different districts.
It may be observed that the Hindu Bengalis are heavily concentrated in the districts of Karimganj, Hailakandi, and Cachar [Barak valley], out of which Karimganj and Hailakandi are Muslim majority, with only Cachar having just a shade below 60% Hindus. And, the exclusions are high in such districts, more specifically, where the Hindus are either small minorities, or small majorities, tilting the scales decisively against the Hindus. The exit of a significant number of Hindu Bengalis from the Barak valley will also put the Hindi speakers and Manipuris [both Meitei and Bishnupriya] at serious risk, in a region that threatens to become Hindu minority to a miniscule level. The other districts where the Bengalis are in significant numbers are Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Bongaigaon, Nagaon, Morigaon, Hojai, Dhubri, Tinsukia and Gauhati. Out of these, Barpeta, Bongaigaon, Nagaon, Morigaon, Hojai and Dhubri are Hindu minority, while Kokrajhar is eking out a small Hindu majority. The exit of significant numbers of Bengalis will make it more difficult for the others to cope up with the Muslim majorities. The Asomiya, Koch-Rajbangshis and the tribals of these regions will find life more difficult with the Bengalis gone. Indeed, of the twelve districts where the Hindu Bengalis are more than one lakh in population, eleven of them have Hindus at less than 60% of the total population. The Hindu Bengalis are providing a vital demographic cushion in these districts. If the Bengalis were to leave, life would be significantly more difficult for the others.
To understand the demographic effects of the NRC exclusions and potential departure of those excluded, note that there are eleven districts that are already Hindu minority out of the total of thirty three districts, and there are three more districts including vital districts such as Kamrup and Cachar in the 50-60% Hindu range. In fact, even a Bodo district like Kokrajhar is falling sharply to the rise of Muslim demographics, and it is now down to 55-60% Hindu. Overall, this indicates that the Hindu population is falling sharply. Even without the NRC, the Hindu population would have fallen to ~59% in the 2021 census. Assuming that the current numbers excluded leave Assam, we are left with the following table to estimate the effects of the NRC on the Hindu demographics.
The first column represents the Hindu percentage in each district as per the 2011 Census. The second and third columns provide estimated percentage of Hindus after the NRC exclusions. The numbers in these two columns are based on two assumptions. The first assumption made is that the exclusions in the districts have followed the inclusion rates in the initial list. The final list [whose districtwise exclusions are not available, as far as we know] is based on this list. The second assumption is based on how many would be disenfranchised, based on the current status of the NRC. The column titled Hindu Percentage 2021 assumes that only those excluded in the NRC will be disenfranchised, while the column titled Hindu Percentage 2021-2 assumes that the dependents of the Hindus excluded would move out of the state. The latter case is more likely, since it would be impossible for families to be separated, and the people affected are often extremely poor who simply cannot afford to maintain their families in multiple states. Summarily, 11 districts of Assam turn Hindu minority, as per the latter case, and four more become marginally Hindu majority (Hindu percentage is between 50-60%).
The political effects are even more serious. The above table shows that 49 seats are in Hindu minority districts, and there are three more districts where Hindus have a small majority [Kamrup, Cachar and Kokrajhar], and these three districts account for 16 more seats, bringing the total to 65 seats. This gives the local Muslim party, AUDF, led by Badruddin Ajmal, a total majority that he needs [there are 126 seats in Assam assembly]. It is true that there are ~10-15 seats among these where Hindus still constitute a comfortable majority [60%+ Hindu], but the thing is coming too close for comfort. What this indicates is that Assam may well have Badruddin Ajmal as the chief minister very soon. Incidentally, Badruddin Ajmal of AUDF has said that the current BJP-RSS MLA of Hojai, Shiladitya Deb, will not win elections any more [71]. Hojai is one of the worst affected by the NRC exclusions, as is evident from the first table in this Section. In the Lok Sabha seats, already Karimganj, Dhubri and Barpeta are Hindu minority, and soon, Nagaon, and Mangaldoi, with possibly even Kaliabor will shortly become Hindu minority.
However, the above analysis overlooks another more serious problem that will have to be tackled. The average size of the electorate in the Muslim heavy seats [Dhubri, Karimganj, Nagaon, Kaliabor, Mangaldoi and Barpeta] was 16.09 lakhs, while the Hindu heavy seats [Gauhati, Lakhimpur, Dibrugarh, Jorhat and Tezpur] was 15.14 lakhs. What this suggests is that in future there is going to be more seats allocated to the Muslim heavy districts, especially Dhubri, Mangaldoi and Nagaon, which have 17.99 lakhs, 17.24 lakhs and 17.36 lakhs respectively, from Jorhat, Dibrugarh and Tezpur, which have an electorate of 13.20 lakhs, 12.66 lakhs, and 14.37 lakhs respectively. This will skew the electorate even more towards the Muslim heavy seats. Further, Gauhati Lok Sabha seat is a tricky seat, with the city being heavily Hindu, but the countryside around rapidly losing Hindu population rapidly.
There are, finally, two more vital political-strategic considerations to consider.
The political point is that there are roughly 30 lakh Na-Asomiya Muslims, that is, who were originally Bengali, and may even be speaking Bangla at home, but have declared their mother tongues as Assamese in the aftermath of the independence. Indeed, most of the Asomiya speaking Muslims of lower Assam are Na-Asomiya Muslims. This “linguistic conversion’’ has artificially bolstered the Asomiya numbers. Now, the need for this charade is over. They can reunite with their Bengali speaking Muslim brethren to demand a Muslim majority state in lower Assam which includes Gauhati [Gauhati, despite being a Hindu majority city, is practically surrounded by Muslim majorities]. With 1.07 crore Muslims and 1.05 crore Asomiya Hindus [and 55 lakh other non-Bengali Hindus], the Muslims are in a very strong bargaining position. In fact, it is quite likely that this will be the next point of play for the Muslims. Similarly, the Muslims of Barak can demand a separate state. The end result will be the creation of two more Bengali speaking Muslim states.
The strategic point is even more dangerous. The Hindus of Upper Assam are practically isolated from the rest of India by the presence of the Muslim lower Assam. While their ability to intervene in war time to the detriment of India by snapping off rail/road traffic to upper Assam is a serious possibility, the more likely course is that they will intervene in the day-to-day affairs of Upper Assam to the detriment of the upper Assamese communities. This will be similar to the lock that the Nagas have on the Meiteis of Manipur. Whenever the Nagas [who are almost exclusively Christian] are upset, they blockade the Imphal valley, while the Meiteis [who are mostly Hindu] are unable to do anything to stop it [and the Indian state has never cared about the Hindus of any region]. The end result will be the fragmentation of Hindu lands, with the Hindus unable to seriously resist the two Abrahamic religions in the North East. And if Assam cannot be held by the Hindus, then the North East is gone. None of the other regions [outside Sikkim, which, while technically an north eastern state, is linked differently to India] will be able to resist. The end result will be a Hindu-free north east.
Section C: Can a pan-India NRC turn out to be a tool to discriminate against the non-Hindi speaking Hindu linguistic minorities in each state?
We have shown that the Hindu Bengalis have been disproportionately excluded in the Assam NRC [79]. Bangla-speakers constitute the largest linguistic minority in Assam. Assam also has a considerable population of Hindi speakers, 6.96% according to census of India, 2011, or just over 21 lakh people. Gauhati University history professor Rajib Handique has said, “The ‘ golas‘ in every tea estate is a visible sign of the presence of Hindi-speaking people, especially the Marwari community’’ [16]. The press reports that have emerged post the publication of the final list suggest that very few Hindi speakers have been excluded, though the poverty and the lack of education in this sector of residents of Assam is very high – it is therefore unlikely that they would have their documents in place when the more educated Hindu Bengalis did not. After the NRC final draft list was published, the home minister of India and the chief minister of Assam had instructed the NRC coordinator not to exclude any Hindi speaker. In fact, the instruction was that “no Hindi speaker or Indian citizen” ought to be excluded, thus Hindi speakers are deemed legal regardless of whether they were citizens of India [16]. Javed Khan, Rajyasabha MP, had noted in his dissent note submitted on 3 January, 2019 to the Joint Parliamentary Committee that “Non-Bengali Hindus who did not fulfil NRC criteria are being assured that they will be included in NRC’’ p. 90, [9].
After the large scale disenfranchisement of 13 lakh non-Hindi speaking Hindus, of which 11 lakhs are Hindu Bengalis, in a BJP-RSS regime in the center and the state of Assam, RSS, RSS is organizing the Hindu Bengalis in a movement against this very disenfranchisement through organisations close to it, such as North East Linguistic and Ethnic Coordination Committee (NELECC) [38]. The proximity can be seen from the facts that majority of NELECC leaders are closely connected to RSS, and NELECC representatives were accorded the privilege to meet Mohan Bhagwat and president of the women wing of RSS, Shanta Kumar [57]. Such high office-bearers of RSS do meet those outside RSS, but only if they are celebrities or dignitaries; otherwise such audiences are granted only to those within the fold. Also, in a large protest meet convened by NELECC on Hindu exclusion through NRC on 24 September in Silchar, senior RSS functionaries of the region were present throughout [56]. On 1 October, 2019, RSS mouthpiece, Organizer, describes this protest as “..widely protested just a few days across the Barak valley by North Eastern Linguistic and Ethnic Coordination Committee (NELECC) most of whose keys members were active RSS workers in Barak valley.’’ [59] In this protest, the speakers explicitly undermined the Bengali linguistic identity, by recommending those proud of their linguistic identity to leave to Bangladesh. He also blamed the 11 martyrs of Barak valley Bangla language movement, claiming that if they had martyred themselves for the Hindu identity, rather than the Bengali identity, then Hindu Bengalis would not have faced the citizenship troubles [38]. Note that local Sangh leaders fully supported the protest meet by NELECC [56]. Thus, RSS was, not so subtly any more, blaming the Bengalis for their plight.
We now briefly recapitulate the Bangla language movement that RSS undermined. In April, 1960, Assam Pradesh Congress Committee proposed to declare Assamese as the sole official language of the state. At that point only one-third of Assam spoke Assamese, and a greater share of the populace spoke Bangla. A mob violence followed in the Brahmaputra Valley, in which an estimated 50,000 Bengalis fled the Brahmaputra Valley for West Bengal, and another 90,000 fled to Barak Valley and other regions of the North East. According to the report of an enquiry commission, 25 villages of Goreswar in Kamrup district, 4,019 huts and 58 houses belonging to Bengalis were vandalized and destroyed in. Nine Bengalis were killed and more than one hundred injured. On 10 October 1960, Bimala Prasad Chaliha, the then Chief Minister of Assam presented a bill in the Legislative Assembly to legalize the proposal. Ranendra Mohan Das, the legislator from Karimganj (North) assembly constituency, who was a Bengali, protested against the bill as it sought to impose the language of a third of the population over the rest two thirds. On 24 October, 1960, the Assam legislative assembly passed the bill. Hindu Bengalis protested against this imposition. On 19 May, 1961, in a dawn-to-dusk hartal, para-military forces beat and fired 17 rounds in seven minutes at a protesting crowd. 9 Hindu Bengalis were killed on spot, and two other Hindu Bengalis succumbed to the injuries received during the protest. Their names are Kanailal Niyogi, Chandicharan Sutradhar, Hitesh Biswas, Satyendra Deb, Kumud Ranjan Das, Sunil Sarkar, Tarani Debnath, Sachindra Chandra Pal, Birendra Sutradhar, Sukamal Purakayastha, Kamala Bhattacharya. After their martyrdom, the Assam government was forced to withdraw the circular and Bengali was accorded official status in the three districts of Barak Valley. Section 5 of Assam Act XVIII, formulated in 1961, says, “Without prejudice to the provisions contained in Section 3, the Bengali language shall be used for administrative and other official purposes up to and including district level.” [39].
We next show that undermining the Bangla language and linguistic and ethnic pride of Hindu Bengalis, blaming the Hindu Bengalis of Assam for their plight, is recurrent in the discourse of BJP-RSS and its ecosystem. In other words, the position of NELECC is not a one-off.
On 21 December, 2019, in a meeting of all BJP lawmakers including Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal and Finance Minister Himanta Biswa Sharma, Ashok Singhal of Dhekiajuli and Padma Hajarika of Chaita aired their grievances on Hindu Bengalis as a whole. Their complaint was that Hindu Bengalis do not accept Assamese language and culture, do not join Bihu, look for Bengali language schools, do not introduce themselves as Assamese and celebrate Rabindra Jayanti. They demanded that the BJP MLAs persuade the Bengalis to declare Assamese as their language in Census. The MLAs from Barak valley like Dilip Pal and Parimal Baidya remained quite, but Shiladitya Deb objected. Shiladitya Deb said that most Hindu Bengalis in the Brahmaputra valley in fact go to Assamese or English medium schools as there are very few Bengali medium schools there and learn Assamese there. He said that in the Charaideo district most Hindu Bengalis speak in Assamese. In the Bordoloi village of Sonari constituency of Tapan Gogoi, every one is a Bengali but speaks in Assamese. Ashok Singhal has been elected on Hindu Bengali votes among others. Ashok Singhal became furious at Deb’s counter and attacked Hindu Bengalis and Shiladitya with greater venom, leading to ruckus in the meeting. Sarbananda Sonowal calmed everyone down in his address. Himanta Biswa Sharma scolded Shiladitya Deb instead. He asked when Parimal Baidya remained quite, why is Shiladitya Deb vitiating the atmosphere and endangering BJP when they are having to defend the Citizenship Amendment Act assuming grave risk. Shiladitya have been forbidden from addressing press meets for a while and so he is expressing himself in Facebook and getting many likes. [84]
On 4 September, 2019, that is 4 days after 33% of Hindu Bengalis were excluded from the NRC final list, in the Bangodesh Magazine that is close to the BJP-RSS, an individual who goes by the name of Rani Roy on Social Media and is understood to be a BJP IT cell member, justified the dislike for Hindu Bengalis in Assam alleging that the Hindu Bengalis have superseded languages such as Assamese in Assam [63], an allegation that is wholly unfounded [72]. Note the implicit claim that Hindu Bengalis are not entitled to pride in their language, but the Assamese are. The same article also proscribed that those who are proud of being Bengalis should go to Bangladesh [63]. Next, consider Kachan Gupta, a journalist by profession and a BJP-RSS ecosystem member possibly by vocation. In the Vajpayee era, he had become a director at the PMO under the then all-powerful principal Secretary Brajesh Misra [73]; after BJP-RSS lost power, he ran Niti-central, a web-portal popularly referred as Modi-central; after BJP-RSS regained power he is often seen on Republic TV, a venture primarily funded by BJP MP Rajeev Chandrasekhar. He has recently been appointed by the current BJP-RSS government of India as the Chairman of the Raja Rammohan Roy Library Foundation. In January 2018, he justified the hatred against Hindu Bengalis in the North East, calling them colonials, for the unforgivable crime of playing songs composed by nobel-laureate Rabindra Nath Tagore on All India Radio:
As an aside, subsequent to this ethnic tirade against Bengalis, Mr. Gupta’s long spell of unemployment has been happily ended with successive appointments as a distinguished fellow at the Reliance industries funded ORF and Chairman of Raja Ram Mohun Roy Library Foundation (the latter appointment has been bestowed by Government of India run by BJP-RSS).
Home Minister Amit Shah has assured Assam Sahitya Sabha President Paramananda Rajbangshi that through Article 345 of the constitution Assamese would be declared as the permanent sole official language of Assam [75]. This is despite the fact that about 28% of Assam have declared Bangla as their primary language and less than 50% of Assam, 49% to be precise, of Assam have declared Assamese as their primary language. In contrast, Nepali has been declared an official language of West Bengal despite only 1.25% of West Bengal indicating Nepali as their primary language. Thus, the discrimination against Bangla language in BJP-RSS is not limited to discourse any more.
The above constitute 1) clear statements that Bangla has no place in India in the worldview of a section of BJP-RSS, and 2) threat that those who insist on maintaining Bangla as their language would face deportation to Bangladesh. The tactics is identical to how Christian Missionaries further their religion using natural and manmade disasters – they propagate their religion among those they provide relief, and often require conversion to Christianity for availing of such relief. Notably, in predominatly Bangla speaking Silchar, after the publication of the final NRC list, in late September, 2019, Mohan Bhagwat explicitly stated that Hindu identity supersedes regional and linguistic identities [55], implicitly positing the religious and linguistic identities for Bengalis, the population targeted for mass exclusion through NRC. Ironically, BJP-RSS adherents criticize Muslims on the ground that they have only one identity, their religious one, which supersedes their other identities including the linguistic identities. We have elsewhere argued that the ideology of BJP-RSS is closer to Islam than Hinduism [72].
While denigrating pride in Bengali identity, BJP-RSS celebrates “Hindi Divas’’ (Hindi day) with great pomp and show every year. They do not however celebrate a “Hindu Divas’’ ever, which suggests that 1) Hindi-identity is given greater importance than Hindu identity, and 2) Hindu identity is supposed to supersede linguistic identity only for those who do not speak Hindi. For example, in 2019, Barak Sahitya Samiti commemorated Hindi Divas with much fanfare. Dr. Rajdeep Ray, BJP MP from Silchar, was an organizer. Former Union minister Kabindra Purkayastha and BJP-RSS leader was facilitated on the occasion. Purakaystha said that Hindi has unified India. Initially there were linguistic divisions which have been resolved after Hindi has been declared the national language [58]. Same day, home minister Amit Shah equated Indian identity to one language, Hindi. This was opposed tooth and nail by the current economically powerful South Indian bloc, led by the Tamizh politicians, which may explain the subsequent strategic retreat in which Prime Minister Modi celebrated India’s linguistic diversity abroad, and paid special homage to the Tamil language.
The concern that naturally arises is if the population share of the non-Hindi speaking Hindus may be artificially reduced through disenfranchisement devices such as the NRC, other than the documented phenomenon of the TFR of those speaking Hindi being substantially higher than those Hindus who are lower down the peck order. The TFR of Hindus in the Hindi speaking states of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh is actually higher than the Muslim TFR in many south Indian states, Bengal and Assam. A table is given showing this disparity below. [67]
In the above table, it can be seen that not only the Hindu TFR, but also the Muslim TFR in all the South Indian states and Bengal are lower than the Hindu TFR of the North Indian states. The Muslim TFR of Kerala, Tamizh Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Bengal are 2.3, 1.9, 1.8, 2.2, and 2.2 respectively, while the Hindu TFR of UP, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Bihar are 2.6, 2.6, 2.8 and 2.9 respectively. The following table shows the proportion of speakers of various languages in different Census:
In the above table, it can be seen that Hindi [indeed, even Urdu and Punjabi are decreasing since 1991] has been increasing continually since 1951, but the south Indian states and Maharashtra have been losing share since 1971 due to their lower fertility rate. For instance, Telugu fell from 7.87% in 1991, to 6.6% in 2011, Kannada from 3.91 to 3.61% in the same period, Malayalam from 3.62% to 2.88%, etc. The fall of proportion of Bangla speakers has been far less precipituous – from 8.30% in 1991 to 8.03% in 2011 (Note that the proportion of Bangla speakers rose from 1951 till 1991 rapidly, due to the large scale influx of Hindus and Muslims from Bangladesh, but has been slowly falling since then). Despite the fact that Hindu Bengalis have one of the lowest TFRs among all Hindus, the fall in proportion of Bangla speakers has been so little because of the large scale influx of Muslims from Bangladesh (the Hindus have now been vastly reduced in Bangladesh) . If NRC specifically excludes the non-Hindi speaking Hindus, it may skew the demographics towards the Hindi and Urdu speakers much more in the near future, through exclusion of Hindus among the speakers of non-Hindi languages.
Its possible that this concern is unfounded as the CAA promises to provide citizenship status to a large number of non-Hindi speaking Hindus. But, an overall safety net for Hindus would be more reassuring.
Section D: The impact of the NRC exclusions on the economy and psyche of Hindu Bengalis in Assam and West Bengal
The distress caused by NRC has adversely impacted the economy in Assam and adjoining regions in West Bengal. NRC has drained the exchequer and individuals. The process took ten years, employed 52,000 government employees and cost the Government of India a whopping Rs 1,220 crore [25]. Rights and risk analysis group estimates that NRC has cost each individual Rs. 19000 on an average to attend hearings and other expenses [24]. The average expense would increase with increase in the number of lists that has excluded an individual. Since in each list the exclusions have been much higher for the Hindu Bengalis, they would bear a much higher cost per head.
The final list was published about a month before the most important public worship and festivity of Hindu Bengalis, namely the Durga Puja. In many markets of Jalpaiguri that are on the Assam border, like Barbisha, Kamakhyaguri, the consumers mostly come from lower Assam. Small traders from lower Assam also come to buy from these markets. After mass exclusions in NRC, an atmosphere of uncertainty has prevailed, and people are consumed in collecting documents, which have substantially reduced purchases by these consumers [12]. A cloth merchant in Barbisha of North Bengal said that his family lives in Assam, and some of his immediate family members have been excluded. As a result, every one in their family is stressed. This is the situation in home after home he thinks. He believed that the Durga Puja celebrations would be substantially subdued in Assam this year, and this is affecting their business in North Bengal [11]. Cloth trader Karthik Saha is the Secretary of the business association in Barbisha. He says that 70% of their purchasers are from lower Assam and the transactions with them have gone down. Narayan Saha is the Secretary of the cloth trader Association in Kamakhyaguri. He says that last year this time the transactions clocked Rs. 4 lakhs every day. For the last four days, the transactions have gone down to less than Rs. 1 lakh per day. Iron equipment trader Nitai Saha of Kamkhyaguri estimates that the sales have crashed to Rs. 1.5-2 lakh per day from 5-7 lakhs per day considering all shops of Kamakhyaguri and Barbisha. The sale of construction equipments have reduced to Rs. 5-7 lakh per day from Rs. 20-25 lakh per day. Sanjay Saha who sells electronic equipment in Kamakhyaguri says that he used to sell 4-5 fridge, TV, mobiles, 1-2 washing machines every day to customers from Assam, but the sales have reduced to a trickle starting the beginning of this month [12]. Business in other bordering regions of Assam in Bengal (eg, Baxirhat, Tufanganj, Assam mor, Jorai mor) have slowed down too, in part because of NRC. 4000 businessmen have lost their livelihood. Many from lower Assam (eg, from Kokrajhar, Choto Gumah) used to come here for commercial transactions. But large scale exclusion from NRC have caused distress. People have stopped traveling to these areas for business transactions [13]. In general, throughout West Bengal, the Puja markets are seeing a slump in part because of the terror created by NRC. People are prioritizing readying their documents over Puja shopping, and are consumed in retrieving those from various administrative offices which are being overwhelmed by large queues. The fear of losing citizenship had dampened Puja spirits in the days leading up to the Pujas [53].
Indeed, the grandeur of the public Durga Pujas of Assam, eg, in Hylakandi, has gone down substantially. Their collections of public contributions has reduced due to the combination of the economic slowdown and mass exclusions of Hindu Bengalis in NRC [3]. Enthusiasm was subdued and markets were depressed about a week before the Durga Pujas, partly due to NRC [4]. Puja celebration was subdued in Karimganj. Streets emptied out by midnight during both Saptami and Ashtami. The clubs did not organize music and other festivities at night [6].
The news of the mass exclusion of Hindu Bengalis in NRC in Assam has precipitated an atmosphere of impending doom and gloom in West Bengal. Many poor people in West Bengal either do not have documents predating 1971, or have lost their documents in natural calamities. They are terrified of losing their citizenship status should an NRC be conducted. We give some examples below.
- Many small villages used to be on the bank of river Padma in the Bangladesh border regions of West Bengal. The homes there would be regularly washed away. So the villagers have no documents. In the last 20 years Padma has moved away towards Bangladesh, so the villagers were happy and thanking Ma Durga. Now they are terrified at the prospect of NRC. There is terror all along the Domkal border [52]. Nitai left Durgapur village in Rajshahi in 1971. They named the place they settled in in West Bengal as Durgapur. He lost his home thrice due to crumpling of soil as a result of flow of water in the adjoining Padma. The village is now called Char Durgapur, Durgapur shore. Now, NRC is the only topic of discussion in village gatherings and local tea shops. His sons are running to local BDO office and land reform office to gather documents. He is sad before the arrival of Puja. Bhaktacharan Haldar of Toltoli and Gurupada Mondal of Char Durgapur are in the same predicament. They arrived from Bangladesh 38-40 years back. Bhaktacharan had brought a handful of soil from his courtyard as keepsake. Padma had swallowed that. He asks how many times would he have to lose his state in one lifetime ? Once he came to India leaving behind everything. Would he have to return ? Wiping off his tears, Nitai Mondal asks, which is his country then ? His birth-country had no place for him. He came to India. He is now hearing that if documents are not in place they would have to return. He is old. He might not live long. He will go to jail if necessary. What about his sons? They have been born in India. Let them not feel the pain of losing their country. Let them live in India. This is his only prayer to Goddess [51]. Haran Mondal of Char Durgapur says he was uprooted twice, once by the other Bengal, twice by the Padma river. What will he do if he loses the small plot of land the government gave him because of NRC? He prefers to die before he is uprooted yet again [28]. 78 year old Kalipada Mondal of Char Durgapur had come to India with his grandfather during partition. He lost his home twice due to Padma floods. He is now wondering if he has to return with his grandson [52].
- 60 year old Shyamal Pramanik of Char Rajapur was forced to leave his birth place, gradually the land he adopted as a refugee became his home. He is apprehensive of losing it again [52].
- Anibha Kar is from Assam. 26 years back she was married into Rajabhatkhaoa of Pampu Banabasti in Alipurduar. Her husband died 6 months back. All their documents were lost in 1993 flood. She asked the West Bengal BJP President, Dilip Ghosh, if she would be driven away, during one of his public connection meetings there [29].
- The Hindus of Fulia village of Shantipur police station of Ranaghat subdivision in Nadia district are primarily weavers. They had arrived before 1971, but have documents from much later, as many of them were able to buy plots of land only afterwards. Dilip Chandra Das (52) had been admitted to a primary school in 1972. His father and elder brother used to work as weaving-labors. They bought a piece of land in 1982 and had registered it even later. He lives with his wife, son and two older brothers. He also works as a weaving labor. The family is desperately searching for documents to prove their domicile in Fulia before 1971. The father and uncle of Biswajit Basak of Taltala had arrived as refugees in 1970. They lived with their older brother who had migrated earlier and was working as a weaving-laborer. They bought a plot of land in 1976. Biswajit also works as a weaving labor and has no schooling certificate. So they have no documents before 1976. Rajubala Sarkar had migrated from Pabna in Bangladesh before independence. Her husband Rishipada Sarkar was a daily wage laborer. He has died 40 years back. They first lived in Lakshminatpur of Baganchra, then in Krishipalli and then Spun Pipepara of Fulia. They are defiant [44].
- In Dhubulia village most Hindus had arrived before the creation of Bangladesh, either just before or further back. They are terrified because they don’t have any land documents, most of them had illegally occupied their lands. Ashutosh Das had won thrice in local Panchayat on CPIM ticket. He has recently joined Trinamul after winning. His father Sitanath Das had arrived in 1971 just before the Bangladesh liberation war. He has 2 brothers and 3 sisters. They have only their Adhar and voter cards. Rasaranjan Ganapati has crossed 70. He had arrived in 1971 from Rajapur village of Barisal. After losing everything, he came through Benepol, went to Shyamnagar and Andaman before settling in Dhubulia. Rabin Mridha came from Khulna in 1949. They used to have a ration card from their refugee camp days, but can not locate it now. A driving license was issued in his name in 1967, which his son Krishnakanta Medha still has. He has passed away. “ Hearing that many Hindus have been excluded, will we become stateless? “ This question is reverberating throughout the area [46].
- 150 Muslim families and 35 Hindu families live in Bhangamali village of Chaulhati in Jalpaiguri along the Bangladesh border. Hindus here are more terrified of NRC than the Muslims as per villager Mojaffar Hossein. Hindu families are not able to locate the documents they received when they arrived as refugees. Dhiren Ray’s father had bought a piece of land, but during his time most transactions were oral. His grandfather used to live in Bangladesh, his father went to school there. He is anxious about becoming a refugee again with his wife, son and grandson [47].
- In Nabadwip, octogenarian Chapala Saha is used to waking up early dawn during the Puja days. She used to collect lotuses. This year even before the arrival of Puja she is waking up midnight. She is whispering, “is the border slip still there ?” She is frequently waking up with a start and alerting her son, “Babu, please carefully preserve the border slip these days.” 86 year old Chapala Debi has heard that all those who arrived the year after Jai Bangla would be sent back to Bangladesh. Ever since she heard this she has been trembling. The Puja has lost all significance to her. Not only her, let us take the example of Lalgopal Pal. This man on the wrong side of eighties have been somewhat depressed since he heard of the NRC. During nights he is uneasy on his bed. He has a pacemaker in his heart. His sons are asking him not to worry. But the old man is uttering the same thing, “ at the end would I have to Be imprisoned in a camp?” Chapala Debi came to India in 1964. It was the month of Shraban. From the district of Faridpur, Baliakandi police station, Ramdia station she took the train to Kalkhali station. From there in Dhaka Mail she reached the Darshana border of then Pakistan. There was checking there for three hours. After hearing that she wanted to stay in Hindustan permanently officers handed her over a slip with government seal. It was the permission to stay in India. With the slip in her possession, first she stayed in Naihati, then in Chunchunra. She moved to Nabadwip after a few years. After a lot of struggle, she created a place to stay. At the same abode at Oladebi Tala, she asks, how will the 1971 slip remain ? Then we were somehow trying to survive on bare minimum. Those who are saying to live in this country we have to show evidence from before 1971, or land documents, do they know of the floods during 1978 or 2000 ? Many important documents were lost in water. After all this a slip of paper becomes so valuable !” Then what you will do? With steely eyes she says, “that time we fled to here, this time we will not flee” [48].
- Most of the inhabitants of Coopers camp of Ranaghat in Nadia are Hindu. The news that the majority of the NRC exclusions here are Hindus have reached them. They are all anxious. During 1945, the agricultural and daily-wage laborers from Khulna, Faridpur, Barisal, Noakhali, Jessore arrived here. Some have arrived later. For example, a Majumdarbabu of Ward No. 6 whispered that he arrived in 1972, and does not know what would happen to them. While fetching water from a tap, middle-aged Anjali Gharami tells that they have nothing to fear as they have been rehabilitated. Some one else warns her that many eminent people have been excluded in Assam. The chairman of the notified area of Coopers camp, Shibu Bain says that every one here had received refugee certificate, but many have not retained it, at least 50% will not be able to reproduce it, now they are at a loss. An old man on the wrong side of 70 says that he lives in Andaman with his 3 sons, he is worried about his one son who lives here. Along with his father, Ashok Chakraborti had left East Bengal at the age of eight in 1950. They first stayed in Bangaon station, then in Sealdah station, then in a warehouse at Coopers Camp, and finally got a two-storeyed tin home. He became an area committee member of CPIM and district level President of Central Refugee Committee. His home is now crowded, and his phone line is busy. The refugee department was relocated thrice and many documents have been lost. Pradip Haoladar of Ward No. 6 has lost his government dispersal card, anxious, he has arrived to seek counsel from Ashok Babu. Bacchu Mali says he has not received his land documents, village doctor Debashis Mondal says that in 1984 it was decided that they would receive land documents, which has not materialized [49].
- During 1970-71 Ranubala Pal came from Bangladesh to Masjidbati area of Basirhat. The senior citizen on the wrong side of 70 is worrying that she had migrated to India in face of tremendous pain, will she lose her home again ? [50]
- Bishwambhar Pal owns a bike repair shop in Baduria. His grandfather used to till another person’s land and lived in the landlord’s home. His father used to live at a roadside temporary home. He has purchased a small plot of land in 1995 and has built a home there. He has Adhar and Ration cards. He is asking everyone if a document of 1995 would suffice in NRC [50].
- Even tribals living in remote regions of West Bengal are in the grip of a fear over NRC. For example, the Shabar and Lodh tribals of Jhargram used to depend on forests for their subsistence, now they have become daily wage laborers and porters. 58 year old Lalu Mallik of the Shabar locality of Kadamkanan of Jhargram can not walk well, his son Bantul works as a daily wage laborer. They have voter card, ration card, Adhar card, but they are not able to locate the documents proving ownership of their ancestral land. They have heard that NRC is demanding these documents, and are worried as to how they can prove their citizenship. Lalu laments, “What times have arrived, they have been born here, but they have to prove that they are citizens of this country’’. 57 year old Chamtu Bhuktar of Aranyakanan Shabar neighborhood had a land document, from the times of his father and grandfather, which was not in his name. But termites have eaten it up. Most of the residents of the Shabar locality do not have birth certificates, some don’t have Adhar cards or bank accounts either. In Manikpara Panchayat of Barbigha village Ranjit and Malati Mallik live in a temporary home, they have lost their voter card. They have heard that some people would be expelled, they are worried about their future as they don’t have any document. Latika Shabar of Chandbilla Shabar neighborhood does not have land documents, but has Adhar card, ration card, voter card. Senior citizen of Chandbilla Shabar neighborhood Methara Mallik says most of the Shabars live on government land, where will they get documents from ? Some have got leases, but those are dated after 1971. Due to lack of awareness, they don’t have birth certificates. The Trinamul deputy head of Manikpara Panchayat Mahashis Mahato says that Lodhas, Shabar and other tribals have mostly not got Adhar cards yet, they have voter and ration cards, but often loose those in their struggle for existence. The General Secretary of Medinipur Lodha Shabar development committee Balai Naik says that their organization would shortly start an agitation to stop NRC, now that the Pujas are over [1].
Many are queueing up in local administrative offices to collect or update their birth certificates, ration cards, names in voter lists, property documents etc. fearing that NRC would be shortly declared in West Bengal. Many women from North Bengal, eg, Cochbihar have been married in to Assam, Rajbanshis live both in Assam and Cochbihar. Many of them have not made it to NRC [23]. Some of them have relocated to their maternal homes in North Bengal after exclusion from NRC, fearing confinement in the detention camps (refer to the example of Poulomi Ghosh given before). Thus, in North Bengal everyone is discussing NRC (eg, in Bloc 1 of Cochbihar, Anjali Das, Anukul Barman, Bipul Dey) and they are afraid hearing what happened in Assam. So they want to have all their documents ready [23]. The terror of NRC can be felt throughout West Bengal, not merely in North Bengal. 8 crore beneficiaries of the cheap food-grain program in West Bengal possess digitized ration cards. The remaining 1.1 crore people have no ration cards, primarily because their economic status disqualifies them from food subsidy. But large numbers from this segment are now applying for non-foodgrain ration cards to use those as additional identity documents. About 45 lakh people have applied for these non-foodgrain ration cards in less than three weeks, reflecting the widespread panic about a prospective NRC update in the state and the consequent disenfranchisement. The department had started accepting applications on November 9, 2019, and now in view of the rush, it has extended the deadline from November 30 to December 15, 2019. As per a food department official: “The applicants are from well-to-do families. Usually, these families have enough documents to claim inclusion in any updated NRC. When these families apply for a non-foodgrain card, it’s clear that people are panicking.” Another official opines, “These people didn’t bother about ration cards before; now suddenly they are queuing up because of the NRC scare” . An official asserts that such a craze to acquire a document that would presumably not bring any benefits is unprecedented: “If people from well-off families stand in long queues to apply for a mere identity card, it’s clear the situation is not normal.” A bureaucrat said, “The rush shows the NRC panic is real, especially since it should be clear these cards cannot establish that the holder has been in India since before March 24, 1971, the cut-off date used in Assam….Besides, the list of documents for inclusion in Assam’s updated NRC did not include ration cards. But people here seem to be trying to collect as many identity cards as possible just out of fear.” In addition, as per food department officials, 1.25 crore people had applied for “minor corrections” to their existing ration cards and that this also reflected the NRC scare: “We have been receiving applications to correct minor mistakes, such as the spellings of names, over the past few months. This indicates that people are afraid and want to explore all possible ways of establishing their identity” [74]. Long queues are being reported at other administrative offices everywhere in West Bengal. We give several instances.
- On 17 September, 2019, the Tehatta Sakha (in Nadia) of a nationalized Bank was expecting 150 applications for correction of errors in Adhar card. 3500 showed up from 9-10 villages nearby. Sohagi Mondal came from Chander Hat. She says that everyone in her neighborhood is discussing NRC, and she came out of terror of NRC [21]. On 25 September, 2019, Anandabazar Patrika reported that huge queues are being witnessed in Calcutta Municipality to obtain birth and death certificates even before 8 AM. People have cited NRC as the reason. The crowd was so large that the security guards called in the officers [26].
- On 24 September, 2019, Times of India reported, “Large queues were seen outside Kolkata Municipal Corporation . (KMC) headquarters and other division offices in the city and BDO offices in other parts of Bengal as people waited for their turn in search of land and other necessary documents. “I have come to the KMC office to collect my birth certificate as I had lost it long back. I have heard that we need to have our birth certificates to prove that we are citizens of this country in case NRC is implemented in Bengal,” said 75-year-old AjitRay, who was seen standing outside the civic body’s headquar ters in the city. 55-year-old Bimal Mondal was seen standing outside the land records department of KMC in search of documents of land procurement in the city by his parents fivedecades ago. In rural Bengal similar picture was witnessed outside variou s government and panchayat offices.’’ [40].
- On 26 September, 2019, Money Control wrote “ People in West Bengal are scrambling to get documents or get errors in old ones rectified. This comes amid rising concerns that the National Register of Citizens (NRC) could be implemented in the state too. Over the last few days, queues of people have been seen at offices of Block Development Officers (BDOs), borough offices and civic body offices. The documents being sought could help people prove that West Bengal has been their place of residence.’’ [62].
- People, including octogenarians and housewives, have been queueing up all night at post offices to correct errors in their Adhar cards. They are braving rains, and eating whatever food they could carry into footpaths. For example, old Gaur Das, housewife Maya Barman in Balurghat are in this predicament [27].
- 15-20 people used to arrive at Krishnanagar head post office to get their Adhar cards done, or to rectify errors in it. Now, 1500-2000 are arriving every day. They can not provide more than 30 Adhar cards every day. So, people are being scheduled for dates 2 months later, after standing in long queues. Middle aged Sadhan Biswas lives in Daluigram of Hanskhali. Two days back he went to Swarnakhali bank of Krishnaganj, the previous day he went to a bank in Arongghata of Dhantala. He could not get the Adhar card rectification form there. Hence he came to the main post office. He says that he has to run from one bank to the other, deferring all work, and has to queue for several hours just to prove his citizenship. He never anticipated that such a day would arrive [43].
- Mothers are joining long queues physically carrying their children to get Adhar card for their children as they are afraid that their children may be taken away after exclusion from NRC if they don’t have Adhar card. In Krishnanagar, on 26 September, 2019, Archana Gurung carried her 7 year old daughter, Tagari, while waiting in the long queue. Tagari can not stand because of a congenital defect in her spinal cord. Archana had never thought that her physically challenged daughter will need an Adhar card. Now she worries, how her daughter would survive without her if she is taken away to a detention camp. Archana is from redgate in Krishnanagar. Her husband Mohan Gurung had lived in Dogachi of Krishnanagar all her life. His father Nishikanta had migrated from Shiliguri. The Gurung couple’s ten year old son, Suraj, has an Adhar card. Chumki Mondal of Charuitipi, Chapra, also has to carry her 6 year old Ayush after he got tired. Her husband works in a factory in Delhi, where the couple have their Adhar card. After returning home they heard that they would not be able to live in the country without the card. She is wondering how she can live without her son if he is taken away to a camp [42].
And then there are the refugees who had fled religious persecution in Bangladesh after 1971. They are terrified that they would be thrown out. Neither Mamata Banarjee’s promise that she would not let NRC happen in Bengal, nor Amit Shah’s promise that all Hindu refugees who have arrived until 2014 will be given full citizenship have pacified them. They are terrified that once they are declared illegals the government would forfeit their land and bank balance. In the Introduction, we had stated the circumstances under which Shyamal Sen, Biresh Roy, Rabi gain fled Bangladesh for West Bengal in the recent past. We now describe the terror that had been feeling since the NRC final list had been published.
- Shyamal Sen’s son works in a private firm. He laments, “they wanted my daughter for their family, here in India they would take away all we have. Is it a sin to be a Hindu?’’ [61]
- Biresh Roy is now wondering which country he would go to. It would be difficult to return to Bangladesh [61].
- Rabi Gain is hearing that Modi Sarkar would drive him away, put him in camp. He would die, but not return to Bangladesh. If need be, he would fall on Modi’s feet in Delhi [61].
NRC terror has created mass hysteria in West Bengal [41]. The terror is so intense that some who are discovering that they have lost some of their documents are dying out of fear or committing suicide. The following examples stand out.
- Kamal Ghosh is from Garbeta of West Midnapore. His family migrated to Tengaberia of Gaylapara few years after 1947. After the NRC terror took hold, he could not find his land documents for his home. He lost sleep, could not eat out of anxiety. He was desperately visiting government offices. He went to Jamalpur Bloc to get his digital ration card, but his application was not accepted as he could not submit the necessary documents. He became even more anxious and succumbed to a heart attack at the age of 55. He used to earn his living as a daily wage labourer [48].
- Annada Roy (39) had committed suicide in Maynaguri Thana of Baro Kamat area of North Bengal on 20 September, 2019. He owned 4 bigha land and had taken an agricultural loan of Rs. 90000 mortgaging it. For the last few days he was terrified about NRC since his land documents are with the bank [22]. Also, his father Mihir Roy’s name was missing in this year’s voter list. He was terrified after the NRC list was published in Assam [30]. His brother Dakshada said: “Ever since the final NRC list was published in Assam, Annada had been in panic” [60]. He was asking everyone how he could get the documents back from the bank and even then the documents were dated after 1972 [22]. Brother-in-law Nirmal Roy avers that Annada had no other problems and that he led a normal life until the publication of the final NRC list in Assam. He says, “We have specifically mentioned in the police complaint that he took his life because of panic over the NRC,” [60]. He is survived by his parents, his older brother and others in his family [22].
- In Dhupguri, van-driver Shyamal Roy had lost his voter card, he tried to get a replacement from the local administrative offices. He did not have funds to pay the bribes they asked him for. Out of anxiety and depression, he committed suicide by hanging. He is survived by his wife, son and daughter, all of whom live in a 10 by 10 1 bedroom rented home. His wife works as a household help. He was too poor to own a van and used to drive another’s van paying him Rs. 50 per day. Many of the daily-wage labourers in this area are not able to work as they are forced to queue up at the government offices to get the necessary documents [36], [37].
All suicides have been reported in North Bengal, the region of West Bengal that is close both geographically and socially to the Hindu Bengali regions of Assam. The Hindu Bengalis of this region had voted en masse for BJP-RSS in 2019 Lok Sabha. In Alipurduar of North Bengal, lower levels of BJP are deeply apprehensive about NRC. Many women from there have been married to Assam, and have been adversely affected by NRC. The cadre have communicated their reservation to the state president Dilip Ghosh. Those who just voted for them are joining TMC programs. That a vote for BJP is a vote for statelessness is spreading. BJP cadres are not being able to enter several areas such is the terror of NRC [45].
If properly implemented the CAA can redress this terror of the NRC among the Hindus of Bengal.
Conclusion
The Government of India ought to declare a pan-India NRC only after suitably plugging the loopholes that led to the disaster experienced in Assam and after sensitizing the populace as to how it has ensured that such a disaster is not repeated in the future implementations. Indics do not deserve to be terrorized through a device of the state in their civilizational land. A safety net is necessary for Indics of all ethnicities before a NRC is declared.
References:
[1] People of Shabar community in Jhargram are also worried about NRC 11 October, 2019 https://www.anandabazar.com/state/people-of-shabar-community-in-jhargram-are-also-worried-about-nrc-1.1056914
[2] Kousik Sen and Subhashish Chaudhuri in Raiganj and Karimpur, “NRC fears: Trinamul reaps, BJP weeps,’’ 29 November, 2019,
[3] Dainik Prantojyoti, 1 October http://dainikprantojyoti.com/01-10-19/epaper.html
[4] Dainik Prantojyoti, 27 September, http://dainikprantojyoti.com/27-09-19/epaper.html
[5] Articles on Ethnic Bias in the BJP-RSS ecosystem – by Saswati Sarkar, Shanmukh and Dikgaj https://sringeribelur.wordpress.com/2018/08/05/links-to-articles-on-ethnic-bias-in-the-bjp-rss-ecosystem/
[6] Dainik Jugasankha, 10 October, https://dainikjugasankha.in/edition/silchar/?pg=1&ar_date=10-10-2019#page1
[7] Actually Hindus have been targeted and victimized through NRC : Assam BJP MLA https://www.hindujagruti.org/news/112095.html
[8] Dainik Prantojyoti, 2 September,http://dainikprantojyoti.com/02-09-19/epaper.html
[9] Dainik Jugasankha, October 12, https://dainikjugasankha.in/edition/silchar/?pg=3&ar_date=12-10-2019#page3
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[11] NRC hits business badly in some parts of North Bengal – Anandabazar, 3 September, https://www.anandabazar.com/state/nrc-hits-business-badly-in-some-parts-of-north-bengal-1.1040373
[12] After NRC customers from Assam are not coming in North Bengal – Anandabazar 4 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/state/after-nrc-customers-from-assam-are-not-coming-in-north-bengal-1.1040835
[13] Business of hurt by GST first, then by NRC in Assam and West Bengal border area – Anandabazar 6 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/district/north-bengal/business-of-hurt-by-gst-first-then-by-nrc-in-assam-and-west-bengal-border-area-1.1041774
[14] In Assam, BJP set to do well in minority dominated pockets predict locals, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/in-assam-bjp-set-to-do-well-in-minority-dominated-pockets-predict-locals/story-nGspSbnBTsGFIeQMUUV6AN.html
[15] 1 lakh Gorkhas, genuine Indians left out of NRC final list: Mamata Banerjee, 1 September, 2019, https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/shocked-to-see-genuine-indians-left-out-of-nrc-list-mamata-banerjee-1594112-2019-09-01
[16] Rajnath balm for Hindi-speaking applicants, 15 August, 2018, https://www.telegraphindia.com/states/north-east/rajnath-balm-for-hindi-speaking-applicants/cid/1310331
[17] Excluded from NRC in Assam: 19, 06, 657, 14 September, 2019, https://indianexpress.com/article/north-east-india/assam/nrc-final-list-low-count-assam-bjp-aasu-congress-5955125/
[18] NRC, Outreach or ‘Vikas’: Why Are Lakhs of Muslims Calling up for BJP Membership in Assam?, 17 October, 2019, https://www.news18.com/news/politics/nrc-outreach-or-vikas-why-are-lakhs-of-muslims-calling-up-for-bjp-membership-in-assam-2348803.html
[19] NRC final list : AIDUF changes stand, thanks SC, August 31, 2019 https://www.business-standard.com/article/pti-stories/nrc-final-list-aiduf-changes-stand-thanks-sc-119083100813_1.html
[20] 1 Crore Illegal Bangladeshis’ Name Included In Assam NRC: Shiladitya Dev, 31 August, 2019, https://www.time8.in/1-crore-illegal-bangladeshis-name-included-in-assam-nrc-shiladitya-dev/
[21] Fearing NRC people are registering for aadhar card – Anandabazar, 17 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/district/nadia-murshidabad/fearing-nrc-people-are-registering-for-aadhar-card-1.1046585
[22] Mysterious death of a youth drags NRC terror to it as the cause – Anandabazar 21 September, 2019 https://www.anandabazar.com/district/north-bengal/mysterious-death-of-a-youth-drags-nrc-terror-to-it-as-the-cause-1.1048650
[23] NRC related rumours put Coochbehar and North Bengal under worry – Anandabazar, 21 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/district/north-bengal/nrc-related-rumours-put-coochbehar-and-north-bengal-under-worry-1.1048656
[24] India invented World’s eighth wonder NRC – Anandabazar, 22 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/editorial/india-invented-world-s-eighth-wonder-nrc-1.1048945
[25] Rs 1,220-cr and 10 years later, NRC leaves group favouring exercise dissatisfied, raises doubts over migrant numbers in Assam, https://www.firstpost.com/india/rs-1220-cr-and-10-years-later-nrc-leaves-group-favouring-exercise-disastified-final-list-raises-questions-false-claims-on-migrants-7271991.html
[26] People standing in a long queue in front of KMC to collect death certificate – Anandabazar 25 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/calcutta/people-standing-in-a-long-queue-in-front-of-kmc-to-collect-death-certificate-1.1050473
[27] Amid fear of NRC, People of Balurghat stand in queue for Aadhar Correction – Anandabazar, 25 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/district/north-bengal/amid-fear-of-nrc-people-of-balurghat-stand-in-queue-for-aadhar-correction-1.1050517
[28] Scare of NRC spreads over the villages of Padma river banks of Jalangi – Anandabazar, 24 September, https://www.anandabazar.com/district/nadia-murshidabad/scare-of-nrc-spreads-over-the-villages-of-padma-river-banks-of-jalangi-1.1049834
[29] People asked about NRC to Dilip Ghosh in Alipurduar – Anandabazar 25 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/state/people-asked-about-nrc-to-dilip-ghosh-in-alipurduar-1.1050562
[30] Scare of NRC in North Bengal is spreading by listening to the practical experience Assamese – Anandabazar 26 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/state/scare-of-nrc-in-north-bengal-is-spreading-by-listening-to-the-practical-experience-assamese-1.1050981
[31] Abul Barkat, Shafique uz Zaman, Deprivation of Hindu Minority in Bangladesh: Living with Vested Property, January 1, 2008
[32] মুখোমুখি শিলাদিত্য দেব (বিজেপি বিধায়ক, অসম)। বিষয় – উত্তর পূর্বে এনআরসি, 12 September, 2019,
[33] Maharashtra: Muslim organisation backs NRC in Assam, 24 July, 2019,https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/maharashtra-muslim-organisation-backs-nrc-in-assam-1573158-2019-07-24
[34] Kashmir as integral part of India: Jamiat passes resolution, supports NRC, 12 September, 2019, https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/kashmir-as-integral-part-of-india-jamiat-passes-resolution-supports-nrc-119091200856_1.html
[35] Dainik Jugasankha, 3rd September, 2019, https://dainikjugasankha.in/edition/guwahati/?pg=8&ar_date=03-09-2019#page8
[36] ভোটার কার্ড নেই, উদ্বেগে মৃত্যু, 5 September, 2019 https://www.anandabazar.com/district/north-bengal/dhupguri-youth-commits-suicide-allegedly-for-not-enlisted-in-voter-list-1.1050523
[37] ফের রাজ্যে NRC আতঙ্কে মৃত্যুর অভিযোগ, Maynaguri-র পর Dhupguri-তে আত্মঘাতী, 23 September, 2019
[38] Dainik Jugasankha, 25 September, 2019, https://dainikjugasankha.in/edition/silchar/?ar_date=25-09-2019&t=25-09-2019
[39] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bengali_Language_Movement_(Barak_Valley)
[40] Fear over NRC grips West Bengal, two more commit suicide, 24 September, 2019,
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/fear-over-nrc-grips-west-bengal-two-more-commit-suicide/articleshow/71281560.cms
[41] NRC fear turning into mass hysteria – Anandabazar, 27 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/state/nrc-fear-turning-into-mass-hysteria-1.1051436
[42] Fear of NRC increasing in Krishnagar, people are desperate for documents – Anandabazar 27 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/district/nadia-murshidabad/fear-of-nrc-increasing-in-krishnagar-people-are-desperate-for-documents-1.1051477
[43] Number of people coming for Aadhar Card or Ration Card are increasing for NRC fear – Anandabazar 27 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/district/nadia-murshidabad/number-of-people-coming-for-aadhar-card-or-ration-card-are-increasing-for-nrc-fear-1.1051478
[44] People of Shantipur and Fulia are searching for documents in fear of NRC – Anandabazar 27 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/district/nadia-murshidabad/people-of-shantipur-and-fulia-are-searching-for-documents-in-fear-of-nrc-1.1051479
[45] BJP to circulate leaflet to prevent NRC fear – 27 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/district/north-bengal/bjp-to-circulate-leaflet-to-prevent-nrc-fear-1.1051495
[46] NRC issue made Nadia villagers terrified – Anandabazar, 28 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/district/nadia-murshidabad/nrc-issue-made-nadia-villagers-terrified-1.1051853
[47] Villagers of Chaulhati are anxious about NRC – Anandabazar 28 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/district/north-bengal/villagers-of-chaulhati-are-anxious-about-nrc-1.1051889
[48] People came from East Bengal are anxious about NRC – Anandabazar, Nabadwip 3 October, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/district/nadia-murshidabad/people-came-from-east-bengal-are-anxious-about-nrc-1.1054122
[49] Cooper’s Camp Residents are Panicked over NRC – Anandabazar, 28 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/state/cooper-s-camp-residents-are-panicked-over-nrc-1.1051977
[50] 70-year-old man goes to marriage registration office foe wedding to confirm record in NRC – Anandabazar, 29 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/state/70-year-old-man-goes-to-marriage-registration-office-foe-wedding-to-confirm-record-in-nrc-1.1052339
[51] Many people feared of NRC in various villages of Karimpur – Anandabazar 29 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/state/many-people-feared-of-nrc-in-various-villages-of-karimpur-1.1052372
[52] NRC fear taking over char Durgapur people mind – Anandabazar 30 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/district/nadia-murshidabad/nrc-fear-taking-over-char-durgapur-people-mind-1.1052725
[53] Durga Puja 2019: Shopping slow down for NRC fear, Erosion and Rain -29 September, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/district/nadia-murshidabad/durga-puja-2019-shopping-slow-down-for-nrc-fear-erosion-and-rain-1.1052377
[54] NRC list is published, Assam is under tight security dgtl – Anandabazar, 31 August, 2019, https://www.anandabazar.com/national/nrc-list-is-published-assam-is-under-tight-security-dgtl-1.1038958
[55] Dainik Jugasankha, Silchar edition, 29 September, 2019, https://dainikjugasankha.in/edition/silchar/?ar_date=29-09-2019&t=29-09-2019
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[58] Dainik Jugasankha, Silchar edition, 16 September, 2019
[59] The importance of the visit of RSS Sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat to Silchar, 1 October, 2019,Organizer,https://www.organiser.org/Encyc/2019/10/1/RSS-Sarsangchalak-Mohan-Bhagwat-visits-Silchar.html
[60] Bengal deaths linked to NRC, 21 September, 2019, https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/bengal-deaths-linked-to-nrc/cid/1706468
[61] Dainik Jugasankha, Kolkata edition, 15 October, 2019
[62] Panic in Bengal: People scramble to get documents amid concerns of NRC implementation https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/panic-in-bengal-people-scramble-to-get-documents-amid-concerns-of-nrc-implementation-4476641.html
[63] Rani Roy, বাঙালি পরিচয়ের গর্ব যেন উন্নাসিকতা না হয়ে দাঁড়ায়, 4 September, 2019, https://www.bangodesh.com/2019/09/pound-bengali-yes-but-with-humility/
[64] Jaideep Mazumdar, “Assam NRC: Real Scale Of Infiltration Revealed When Census Figures Are Compared With Electoral Rolls’’, SwarajyaMag https://swarajyamag.com/politics/assam-nrc-real-scale-of-infiltration-revealed-when-census-figures-are-compared-with-electoral-rolls
[65] Census of India, 1951
[66] Census of India, 2011
[67] Saswata Ghosh, “Hindu–Muslim Fertility Differentials in India: Indirect Estimation at the District Level from Census 2011’’, Indian Journal of Human Development, June 2018
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[69] Census Digital Library, http://www.censusindia.gov.in/DigitalLibrary/Archive_home.aspx
[70] AP Joshi, MD Srinivas, and JK Bajaj, “Religious Demography of India’’, Centre for Policy Studies, Chennai.
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[73] Saba Naqvi, “Mr. Indispensable?’’ https://www.outlookindia.com/magazine/story/mr-indispensable/211659
[74] Pranesh Sarkar, 1 December, 2019, Ration card scramble reflects NRC scare https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/ration-card-scramble-reflects-nrc-scare/cid/1723320
[75] Dainik Jugasankha, 1 December, 2019, Silchar edition
[76] Discrimination Against Hindus In Indian Public Discourse, 30 December, 2014, https://swarajyamag.com/politics/discrimination-against-hindus-in-indian-public-discourse
[77] No Hindus will be left in Bangladesh after 30 years: professor, 22 November, 2016, https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/No-Hindus-will-be-left-in-Bangladesh-after-30-years-professor/article16675228.ece
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[80] Jyotirmoy Karmokar, 28 November, 2019, উপনির্বাচনে এনআরসি–র প্রভাব স্বীকার করে দিলীপের হুঙ্কার, ওষুধ বের করছি https://zeenews.india.com/bengali/nation/west-bengal-by-elections-2019-dilip-ghosh-admits-nrc-hurts-bjp-in-bengal_288628.html
[81] Shanmukh, Saswati Sarkar, and Dikgaj, “The Citizenship Amendment Bill – a civilisational, historical and demographic necessity’’ https://sringeribelur.wordpress.com/the-citizenship-amendment-bill-a-civilizational-historical-and-demographic-necessity/
[83] http://calcuttanews.tv/picnic-at-national-highway-to-stoped-road/
[84] Dainik Jugasankha, December 24, Calcutta edition